The Average American Home Is 41 Years Old. That Number Is Your 2026 Business Plan.
- Fritzi Gros-Daillon
- 2 days ago
- 6 min read
In February, the National Association of Home Builders released its 2026 outlook for residential construction. Remodeling is projected to grow 3 percent in 2026 and 2 percent in 2027. For most people in the trade press, that was the headline.
The more important number is the one underneath it.
According to NAHB's own data, the average American home is now 41 years old. That means the typical house a contractor walks into this spring was built around 1985. Before the Americans with Disabilities Act. Before grab bar standards. Before curbless showers and 36-inch doorways and zero-threshold entries were part of any builder's default vocabulary.
That is the operative number. The 3 percent growth projection is a consequence of it.
What the NAHB Forecast Actually Says
The February 2026 NAHB press release is careful with its language. It projects 3 percent inflation-adjusted growth in residential remodeling in 2026, followed by 2 percent growth in 2027. It attributes the projection primarily to an aging housing stock and to homeowners who are choosing to renovate rather than move.
That framing matters. NAHB is not forecasting growth because more Americans are suddenly doing discretionary kitchen refreshes. It is forecasting growth because the homes people live in are old, the people living in them are aging, and the math of moving has gotten harder in most markets.
For a builder or remodeler trying to plan a year, that distinction changes everything. "3 percent growth" sounds like a rising tide. "3 percent growth driven by aging homes and aging owners" tells you exactly what kind of work will be asked for.
The Lock-In Effect and Why It Matters to Your Pipeline
There is a secondary pattern that does not always show up in the trade-press summaries. Older homeowners, in particular, are not moving.
Some of that is financial. A homeowner who bought or refinanced at 3 percent is not eager to take out a new mortgage at current rates. Some of it is emotional. People who raised children in a house, who know the neighbors, who have a doctor and a grocery store and a walking route, do not want to start over at 72. And some of it is practical. Selling and buying both cost money, and that money often makes more sense spent on the house they already own.
The result is a population that is staying put and adapting. That is the pipeline.
It is also the reason a grab bar installation and a full primary-suite reconfiguration are increasingly landing in the same business. What used to be separate conversations - "I need a small safety fix" and "I want to remodel my bathroom" - are starting to merge into one conversation: "We are planning to stay here for the next 20 years, and we want this house to work for us."
The professionals getting those calls are the ones who can answer both parts of it credibly.
What Kinds of Projects Are Driving the Growth
Across the work I see coming through CAPS courses and the field conversations I have with builders and designers, the project mix is consistent.
Bathrooms lead. Primary bathrooms in particular. Tub-to-shower conversions, curbless entries, widened doorways, reinforced walls for current or future grab bars, comfort-height toilets, and better lighting are all showing up on the same scope of work. What used to be an "accessibility remodel" is now often the bathroom the homeowner wanted anyway.
Entries follow. The step up into the house, the narrow front door, the long path from the driveway to the porch - these are fixable problems that most homeowners have simply lived with for decades. Once someone in the household has a mobility change, or once the family starts thinking two moves ahead, these features become the first line item.
Kitchens are in the mix, but the conversation has shifted. Universal design principles, better lighting, varied counter heights, pullouts instead of deep cabinets, induction cooktops, and open sightlines are now showing up in kitchen remodels that the homeowner would not describe as "aging in place" at all. They describe them as "the kitchen we actually want."
And ADUs, accessory dwelling units, are an increasingly serious conversation for families who want proximity to an aging parent without the cost of assisted living. That is a topic worth its own treatment, and we wrote about it separately earlier this month.
All of these are aging-in-place projects, whether or not the homeowner uses the phrase.
The Credential Gap
Here is where the NAHB data gets interesting for anyone trying to position a business.
NAHB's Remodeling Market Index has reported that 56 percent of remodelers are already doing aging-in-place work, and that 73 percent of remodelers say client requests for aging-in-place features have increased over the last five years.
Those are not small numbers. They describe a market where more than half of the professionals in the trade are already performing this work, and roughly three-quarters are watching demand climb.
What those numbers do not tell you is how many of those remodelers have formal training in the field they are now operating in.
Most do not. In my experience teaching CAPS over the last two decades, the pattern is consistent: builders come into the course already doing aging-in-place work, often for years, and leave the course with a framework, a vocabulary, and a credential that lets them charge for what they were already delivering. That is the gap in the market right now. It is not a demand gap. It is a credential gap.
The practical consequence is that the projects are going out the door without the documentation, the pricing, or the positioning that would make them more profitable for the business doing the work, and more trustworthy for the client receiving it.
What This Means for How You Position the Next 18 Months
If you take NAHB's forecast seriously - and there is good reason to, since NAHB's economists tend toward caution, not optimism - the business question is not whether to take on aging-in-place work. You are already doing it, or you will be.
The question is whether your business is built to capture it as what it is.
That has a few practical implications.
First, scope language. The words on your bid sheet matter. "Bathroom remodel" and "accessible bathroom remodel designed for long-term aging in place" are the same project on the ground, but they are different line items when it comes to pricing, client trust, and the referrals that follow. The work is the same. The framing is not.
Second, referral sources. Occupational therapists, geriatric care managers, senior move managers, and home health agencies all make referrals to professionals they trust. They do not always know which remodeler down the street is fluent in this work. A credential is one of the most reliable signals they use to sort.
Third, client conversations. The homeowners calling about these projects are often adult children acting on behalf of a parent. They are nervous, pressed for time, and sorting through professionals they do not know. A professional who can talk them through what the house actually needs - in plain language, without jargon and without scare tactics - is the one who gets the contract.
None of this is a reason to rebrand your business as an aging-in-place specialist. Most of our students do not. They continue to do kitchens and additions, and full-scope remodels. What changes is that they add the credential, the scope language, and the referral posture that lets them capture the aging-in-place work that is already walking through the door.
Why This Data Is Not a Surprise to Anyone Who Has Taken CAPS I
The business case for aging-in-place work is the core of CAPS I. It has been for two decades. What is new in the last 18 months is that the NAHB's own economists, in the association's own press releases, are now saying the same thing out loud.
That is worth noticing, because it tells you something about where the next two years are going. The data has caught up with what practitioners in the field have been seeing. The professionals who already understand this - who have a credential, a framework, and a language for the work - are positioned for it. The professionals who do not are going to watch competitors with a credential take the work.
This is a moment where the business case is written in the data, not in a sales pitch. If you want to see exactly how that case gets built - the demographics, the economics, the market opportunity, the positioning - CAPS I walks through all of it in a single day.
The next Friday sessions start May 8, 2026. The next Wednesday through Friday session is May 20, 2026. Both run 8:00 AM to 4:00 PM PST via Zoom.
The NAHB forecast is not a prediction. It is a description of the work that is already showing up on bid sheets across the country. CAPS turns that work into a credentialed, defensible business position.
Fritzi Gros-Daillon, NAHB Master Instructor and 2019 Educator of the Year, teaches every CAPS course personally.
Next CAPS sessions start: Friday, May 8, 2026, or Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Both run 8:00 AM to 4:00 PM PST via Zoom.
If you are thinking about how to position your remodeling or design business for this shift, Household Guardians also offers one-to-one consulting for firm owners and principals.
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